Positive Forecast for India’s Monsoon as El Nino and La Nina Conditions Absent
India’s monsoon may benefit from the absence of El Nino and La Nina as the Pacific Ocean transitions to a neutral phase. This could result in a more balanced rainfall pattern with fewer extreme weather events. However, forecasting becomes complicated under these conditions. The Indian Ocean is also expected to remain neutral, contributing to the monsoon’s overall dynamics. An initial forecast suggests a potential 103% of average rainfall, yet uncertainties persist.
India’s monsoon appears to be moving toward a favorable season as neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions are expected to hinder its performance. The Pacific Ocean will enter a ‘neutral’ phase, which allows for a balanced monsoon, reducing extreme weather events such as drought or flooding. However, forecasting is more challenging during neutral periods due to the lack of consistent predictive patterns.
The Australian weather bureau reports that the Indian Ocean is also likely to remain neutral through at least August. The sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean significantly affect India’s monsoon, with warmer waters generally leading to increased rainfall. Hence, monitoring these temperatures will be crucial for accurate forecasts.
The US Climate Prediction Center indicates that the neutral conditions in the Pacific could persist over 50% probability until September, potentially extending through the year. Such conditions may lead to the first monsoon period in 12 years without El Nino or La Nina influences, both integral for monsoon predictions from June to September.
M Rajeevan, a seasoned meteorologist and former secretary of the Union Earth Sciences Ministry, emphasizes that neutral Pacific conditions open up various scenarios for India’s monsoon. He suggests that the chances of extreme weather are diminished but that forecasting remains complex, requiring attention to the Atlantic Ocean’s conditions and atmospheric dynamics.
The initial monsoon forecast from Skymet suggests India may receive 103% of its long-term average rainfall, placing it at the higher end of the normal range. Although this is a promising outlook, the neutral state of both Pacific and Indian Oceans introduces uncertainty into the predictions. The implications of these conditions continue to develop, warranting close observation as the season unfolds.
In summary, the neutral phase of both the Pacific and Indian Oceans could lead to a more stable monsoon for India, with a decreased likelihood of extreme weather events. However, forecasting under these conditions poses challenges due to fewer predictable patterns. Experts will need to consider various factors including Atlantic Ocean conditions and atmospheric dynamics to achieve accurate predictions, while the initial rainfall outlook appears favorable yet uncertain due to the prevailing neutral conditions.
Original Source: m.economictimes.com
