Japan Braces for Potential Mega-Quake: Projected Impacts and Preparations
Japan is preparing for a catastrophic mega-quake with a projected worst-case death toll of 298,000. Tsunamis could devastate numerous prefectures, displacing millions and incurring massive economic losses. Health declines post-disaster may add thousands to the death toll, highlighting the need for effective earthquake preparedness and mitigation strategies.
Japan faces a potential disaster from a mega-quake projected to have a catastrophic death toll of 298,000 under worst-case scenarios, primarily from tsunami impacts. The seismic intensity could reach a maximum of 7 in 10 prefectures with devastating tsunami waves exceeding 30 meters predicted in some areas. This disaster may displace up to 12.3 million residents and result in economic damages around 270.3 trillion yen, effectively doubling the national budget.
The report indicates a possible increase in fatalities from health deterioration post-disaster, estimating an additional 52,000 deaths—much higher than previous calamities. Historical data reveal that post-disaster deaths exceeded direct deaths in recent incidents, highlighting the importance of preparedness.
Long-period ground motion may sway skyscrapers across Japan, posing additional risks during the mega-quake. Improperly secured furniture could contribute to injuries, and crowded emergency stairs may lead to secondary accidents as evacuees seek safety. Engineers may need over a month to assess building safety, complicating evacuations from high-rise structures.
Preparedness measures are under scrutiny; over a decade of efforts aimed to reduce fatalities by 80% have yielded mixed results. The government initiated construction of evacuation towers and emphasizes conducting drills, yet targets are unmet largely due to changes in tsunami risk perception. Coastal communities now seem more alert, but modifications to affected area definitions have hampered progress.
Foreign residents could face heightened risks due to limited access to information and supplies during a disaster. Government measures need to ensure that non-Japanese speakers are aware of evacuation routes, as prompt actions can substantially decrease tsunami-related fatalities. Increasing quake resistance in homes and securing heavy objects is equally vital.
Experts urge immediate government action to enhance quake-proof infrastructure and urban planning to minimize risks. A robust monitoring system for risk management and an expansion of qualified personnel in disaster management are crucial. Officials acknowledge the need for improved resilience and better preparedness across all communities to withstand the potential devastation from the Nankai Trough mega-quake.
The Nankai Trough mega-quake poses a significant threat to Japan, with projected death tolls and economic damages reaching unprecedented levels. The importance of preparedness and risk mitigation strategies has been emphasized, especially focusing on vulnerabilities in urban areas and foreign communities. The government’s commitment to enhancing infrastructure resilience and proper resource allocation is critical to prevent an overwhelming disaster. Immediate and concrete actions are needed to protect lives and enable a more robust response to future seismic events.
Original Source: www3.nhk.or.jp
