Ending a 40-Year Kurdish Insurgency: A Historical Turning Point for Turkey and Syria
The cessation of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency is a pivotal event in Turkey and Syria, influenced by the Gaza war. Abdullah Öcalan’s call for peace initiates a voluntary disarmament of the PKK. This change may affect Turkey’s territorial integrity and its relations with Israel, as Kurdish influence in the region potentially grows stronger. The evolving geopolitical landscape requires Turkey to act strategically to manage Kurdish aspirations and international dynamics.
The recent end to a 40-year Kurdish insurgency marks a significant shift in Turkey and Syria, largely influenced by the socio-political aftermath of the Gaza war that began in October 2023. The historical implications of this development on February 27 will unfold over time, but there are concerns that Israel could leverage Kurdish influence against Turkey, prompting Turkey to engage with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
As the PKK prepares for its disbandment strategically, this transition is set to conclude a Kurdish insurgency initiated four decades ago, uniquely through voluntary disarmament. Abdullah Öcalan, serving a life sentence in İmralı since his capture in 1999, has called for peace, directing the PKK to convene a congress to lay down arms—the first non-military resolution in Turkey’s Kurdish conflict.
Historically, the PKK insurgency has been seen as the most robust threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity, dating back to at least three previous Kurdish revolts between 1925 and 1937. Öcalan’s leadership of the PKK, which began its armed struggle in 1984, evolved ideologically during his imprisonment, allowing him to influence Kurdish movements across the region. The PKK’s significant military successes in the Syrian civil war have also solidified their territorial control in one-third of Syria.
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has been transformed following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, disrupting Iran’s stability and altering power dynamics. Turkey, cautious of Israel’s strategic maneuvers concerning the Kurds—who have long endured oppression—must navigate the new reality of heightened Kurdish influence in the region.
Historically, Israeli-Kurdish ties date back to the 1960s, and any renewed support could pose substantial challenges for Turkey, given that the majority of the global Kurdish population resides within its borders. The Kurdish entities established in Iraq and Syria demonstrate a rising trend towards independence, complicating Turkey’s strategic calculations in light of potential regime changes in Iran.
The profound changes emerging from the aftermath of the Gaza conflict compel Turkey to act, as the possibility of Kurdish entities transitioning to formal national representation becomes more apparent with the fragility of the Syrian regime. This situation prompts Turkey to reassess its stance and take proactive measures concerning the Kurdish question, navigating the increased complexity of regional dynamics.
The end of the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey marks a watershed moment for the region, driven by the changing political circumstances following the Gaza conflict. With Öcalan’s call for peace and the PKK’s compliance highlighting a profound shift from military engagement to voluntary disarmament, historical precedents are being set. This new alignment may reshape not only Turkish-Kurdish relations but also influence regional power balance as Kurdish ambitions for autonomy continue to rise amidst geopolitical challenges.
Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org
