IMD Predicts Hotter Summer with Increased Heatwave Days in India
The IMD predicts a hotter summer with increased heatwave days in India, ranging from six to ten instances, particularly in east India. It warns of above-normal temperatures and health risks for vulnerable populations. Normal rainfall in April may provide some respite after a dry March. Current ENSO conditions suggest a transition to neutral, with potential impacts on the upcoming monsoon forecast.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a hotter summer from April 1 to June 30, predicting an increase in heatwave days across many states. This forecast, closely monitored along with the monsoon predictions, indicates significant implications for public health and livelihoods due to elevated temperatures.
Average temperatures are expected to rise above normal in most regions of India, with heatwave days potentially increasing from the usual four to seven, predicted to reach between six and ten particularly in east India. A heatwave is declared when temperatures exceed specific thresholds, notably 45 degrees Celsius or higher, or when temperatures deviate significantly from normal.
The IMD warns that during the summer months, night temperatures will also trend above normal across most of the country. In April, specifically, temperatures are likely to remain elevated, with more instances of heatwave conditions increasing from one to three days to between three and six days, mainly affecting vulnerable populations.
With elevated temperatures come risks of heat-related health issues, particularly for the elderly and those with prior health complications. The IMD recommends proactive measures such as establishing cooling centers and issuing heat advisories to mitigate these risks and alleviate infrastructure strain.
Normal rainfall is anticipated in April, potentially improving conditions after a notably dry March that recorded significant rain deficiency in various regions. The IMD forecasts varying rainfall outcomes, with many regions experiencing normal to above-normal precipitation, while others may face below-normal levels.
The current climate scenario indicates a transition from a weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to persist throughout the summer and into the monsoon season. In India, climatic phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have distinct impacts on summer and monsoon intensities. La Niña is typically related to a stronger monsoon while El Niño tends to correlate with harsher summer conditions and weaker monsoon activity.
Additional factors like global warming and the reduced occurrence of western disturbances this year have further contributed to the rising temperatures. As noted by IMD Director General M. Mohapatra, only two western disturbances were active in March, resulting in below-average rainfall and highlighting ongoing climate concerns.
In conclusion, the IMD’s summer forecast points toward increasingly hot conditions in India, with more anticipated heatwave days contributing to public health risks. However, the projection of normal to above-normal rainfall offers some hope for relief. As climate patterns shift, particularly regarding ENSO conditions, the implications of global warming and reduced weather disturbances must be addressed to mitigate extreme weather impacts. Stakeholders are advised to implement heat action plans to manage the effects of these elevated temperatures effectively.
Original Source: www.hindustantimes.com
