IMD Forecasts Hotter Summer for India: Increased Heatwave Days Likely
The IMD predicts unusually high temperatures and increased heatwave days in India from April to June 2024. Most areas will experience above-normal temperatures, potentially affecting late-sown wheat crops. Experts warn of heightened peak electricity demand as temperatures rise, emphasizing the need for preparedness against climate change impacts on agriculture and energy supply.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating that the summer of 2024 will be hotter than usual across India from April to June. Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated for most regions, particularly affecting the central, eastern, and north-western plains with an increase in the number of heatwave days.
Despite the rising temperatures, the impact on the standing rabi harvest may be minimal as major crops have mostly been harvested. However, late-sown varieties of wheat in northern states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh could experience moisture stress due to temperature spikes.
The IMD estimates a significant increase in heatwave occurrences this summer. Typically, there are 4–7 heatwave days from April to June; this year, there may be an increase of 2–4 days, potentially reaching up to 10 days in eastern India. For April specifically, heatwave days could rise to 3–6 from the usual 1–3.
States predicted to encounter higher than usual heatwave days include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The IMD also stated that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is expected to remain neutral during the upcoming months and the monsoon season, indicating no chance of El Niño formation. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to be neutral during this period. The IMD’s long-range monsoon forecast for 2025 will be released next month.
April’s forecast indicates that most regions will experience above-normal temperature conditions, except in extreme north-west India. Rainfall is expected to be normal to above-normal in areas of north-west, west central, peninsular, and north-east India, whereas the rest of the country may see below-normal rain.
In March 2025, the IMD recorded the all-India maximum temperature as the 14th highest since 1901, with minimum temperatures ranking 12th and mean temperatures ranked 11th highest. Experts anticipate a 9 to 10 percent increase in peak electricity demand this summer due to the anticipated heatwave days and climate-induced heat stress, with last year’s peak demand surpassing 250 gigawatts on May 30, exceeding projections by 6.3 percent.
In summary, the IMD forecasts a hotter summer for India from April to June 2024, with a significant increase in heatwave days, particularly in the northern and eastern regions. While the impact on major crops may be limited, late-sown wheat may suffer from moisture stress. Additionally, above-normal temperatures are expected, raising concerns over electricity demand and potential effects on food prices due to heat conditions. The overall readiness for electricity supply and crop resilience is essential in light of these weather predictions.
Original Source: www.business-standard.com
