Nankai Trough Earthquake: Projected Death Toll and Economic Impact in Japan

A recent Japanese government report warns that a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Nankai Trough could result in 298,000 fatalities, largely due to tsunamis and building collapses. Improved construction and evacuation efforts have lowered earlier death estimates. However, economic damages may reach 292.2 trillion yen, with 10 prefectures expected to experience severe shaking.

On March 31, the Japanese government released a report forecasting that a Nankai Trough earthquake, estimated to have a magnitude of 9, could lead to the deaths of approximately 298,000 people. This figure, primarily attributed to tsunami impacts and building collapses, reflects improvements in building safety and tsunami evacuation measures since earlier estimates. In the previous assessment from 2012-2013, the death toll was projected to be around 323,000.

The report reveals that advancements in antiseismic construction and the establishment of more tsunami evacuation facilities have contributed to a slight decrease in projected fatalities. However, new data indicates that the areas likely to be flooded in the event of such an earthquake may increase, emphasizing the ongoing vulnerabilities in Japan’s infrastructure.

The economic repercussions are also significant, with current estimates predicting that damages will total around 292.2 trillion yen, an increase from the previous estimation of 237.2 trillion yen largely due to rising costs. Additionally, the report anticipates seismic activity registering a maximum intensity of 7 in 149 municipalities across 10 of Japan’s 47 prefectures, indicating widespread severe shaking and potential devastation.

The Japanese government’s assessment highlights the grave risks associated with a potential Nankai Trough earthquake, emphasizing the projected death toll and economic impact. While advancements in building and evacuation strategies may have reduced the anticipated fatalities somewhat, the overall risk remains significant given the increased flooding potential and overall economic damage estimates. Continuous preparedness and resilience efforts are critical for mitigating these risks.

Original Source: www.nippon.com