Erdogan’s Geopolitical Position: Opportunities and Risks for Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan currently benefits from favorable geopolitical shifts, including the fall of Assad in Syria, potential peace with Kurdish militants, and economic recovery. However, risks associated with regional instability and U.S. relations raise questions about Turkey’s near-future strength and influence.

In the current geopolitical climate, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be in a favorable position after serving over 20 years. With the possibility of extending his tenure beyond 2028, factors aligning in Turkey’s favor include foreign policy advancements, economic prospects, and regional stabilization. Emre Peker, a leading expert on Turkey, notes that Erdogan’s chance to pursue his objectives has greatly improved recently.

One significant development is the end of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, which Erdogan has supported for years. This change may encourage Syrian refugees to return to Turkey and bolster Turkish influence in Syria. Erdogan has already initiated a military partnership with Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government, which replaced Assad, laying the groundwork for influence in the region.

Additionally, the Kurdish conflict, involving the PKK, may see resolution, with indications that the group may consider laying down arms. This potential end to a long-standing conflict could provide an opportunity for peace and reconstruction, benefiting Turkey along various fronts.

Erdogan is also positioned as a potential mediator in the Ukraine conflict, which could lead to lucrative reconstruction contracts for Turkish construction firms. His balanced relationships with both Russia and Ukraine are crucial as Turkey navigates complex geopolitical interests in the region.

Economically, Turkey shows signs of recovery despite inflation at 39%, now the lowest in two years. The Central Bank’s cautious rate cuts may sustain economic growth, with the GDP rising by 3.2% despite prevailing challenges. However, these positive trends come with significant risks, as articulated by experts.

The stability of Syria remains uncertain; ongoing tensions could threaten Turkey’s goals if violence escalates. Peker warns that the new Syrian government’s stability is still unproven, which could destabilize Turkey’s border.

Further, Erdogan’s political strategy regarding the Kurdish population must involve delicate compromises to gain necessary legislative support for altering term limits or calling early elections, riskier if his nationalist allies feel sidelined.

Lastly, Erdogan’s prospects are precarious concerning European defense strategies. While Turkey could benefit from the EU’s military spending projects, it remains uncertain if these investments would actually extend to Turkish industry. A potential reduction in American defense support, particularly affecting NATO relations and the strategic Incirlik airbase, could pose challenges for Turkey’s security and stability.

In summary, while Erdogan appears to be navigating a series of favorable developments, the complexity of Turkey’s geopolitical and domestic landscape suggests substantial uncertainties ahead. Peker emphasizes that despite Erdogan’s current position, the notion that Turkey will emerge from this stronger and more influential is not guaranteed.

Erdogan’s current favorable position is underscored by several developments, including shifts in Syria, a potential resolution of the Kurdish conflict, and economic growth. However, risks loom large, from the potential destabilization in Syria to the challenges in garnering support for his political aspirations. The uncertain future of U.S.-Turkey relations further complicates the situation. Overall, while opportunities are present, the reality for Turkey may remain more complex and precarious than it appears.

Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com