IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for India in 2025

The IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall for India, estimating a 5% increase over the historical average. This follows an 8% increase from the previous year; however, the forecasts come with a 4% margin of error. Key factors include the absence of El Nino conditions and reduced Eurasian snow cover, positively affecting monsoon expectations.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal monsoon rainfall for India in the upcoming season, projecting a 5% increase over the historical average of 87 cm. If accurate, this would mark a second consecutive year of above-average rainfall, following an 8% increase last year. However, the forecasts carry a 4% margin of error, which means the rainfall could also lead to intense storms and potential flooding.

A significant factor contributing to this optimistic outlook is the absence of El Nino conditions, typically linked to weak monsoons. The IMD points out that significantly reduced Eurasian snow cover from January to March positively correlates with increased summer rainfall. Specifically, lesser snow can lead to more rain, as indicated by the meteorologists at the IMD.

Currently, neutral conditions are existing in the equatorial Pacific, resembling La Nina effects, which are conducive for rainfall. The IMD notes that the Indian Ocean exhibits neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are expected to persist through the monsoon, aiding precipitation levels.

M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, emphasized the use of a dynamical coupled model for forecasting, incorporating historical data and various parameters, including snow cover. He highlighted a 33% correlation rate between reduced snow and favorable monsoon conditions, although the specific causative factors may vary.

Forecast updates will be provided next month by the IMD. Current assessments indicate that the core monsoon zone, encompassing central and eastern India, is likely to receive expected seasonal rainfall, although some areas may experience below-normal rainfall.

The IMD’s new forecasting method, implemented in 2021, shows marked improvement, with only a 2.7% deviation from initial predictions compared to 7.5% in prior years. This reflects enhancements in accuracy and reliability in predicting monsoon trends for agricultural planning.

In summary, the IMD anticipates above-normal monsoon rainfall for India, which could positively impact agriculture, despite retaining risks of flooding. The absence of El Nino and reduced Eurasian snow cover contribute to this outlook. Ongoing neutral IOD conditions add to favorable expectations, while the IMD’s updated forecasting strategy has improved prediction accuracy significantly, benefitting agricultural planning.

Original Source: www.thehindu.com