IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Monsoon: Implications for India’s Agriculture and Economy
The IMD forecasts an above-normal monsoon at 105% of average rainfall, impacting India’s agriculture and economy. Despite historical inaccuracies in predictions, favorable climate conditions support this outlook. Rainfall distribution will vary regionally, necessitating close monitoring leading up to the monsoon season.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an above-normal monsoon for this year, predicting rainfall to reach approximately 105% of the long-period average. This prediction is particularly significant given the importance of the monsoon season for India’s agricultural economy amidst increasing heat stress. The forecast carries a model error margin of ±5%, presenting a more optimistic view compared to private forecaster Skymet Weather’s prediction of 102%.
India relies on the June-September monsoon season for nearly 70% of its annual rainfall, which is vital for agriculture. The long-period average (LPA) rainfall calculated from 1971-2020 is 87 cm. IMD has assessed probabilities for various rainfall scenarios: 33% chance for above normal (105-110% of LPA), 26% for excess (>110%), 30% for normal (96-104%), 9% for below normal (90-95%), and only 2% for deficient (<90%). Around 51% of farmland depends entirely on rainfall.
IMD’s prediction accuracy has historically been suboptimal, with its forecasts deviating from actual rainfall by more than five percentage points in 14 of the last 24 years. This indicates an accuracy rate of only 42%, though the accuracy has improved in recent years. Last year, the monsoon was reported as 108% of LPA, closely aligning with IMD’s previous estimate.
Factors such as neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean dipole patterns contribute to a favorable outlook for this year’s monsoon. IMD officials suggest that these conditions, which resemble those during La Niña years, should persist throughout the season, enhancing rainfall expectations. The current below-normal snow cover observed in the Northern Hemisphere also favors increased monsoonal rains.
The rainfall distribution will not be uniform across India; several regions, including Jammu and Kashmir, northeastern India, and parts of south peninsular India, may experience below-normal precipitation. Changes in climate patterns could explain the reduced rainfall in the northeast while traditionally arid regions receive more rain.
The IMD expects the monsoon to arrive on the Kerala coast by the end of June, following a gradual path across the nation. With predictions of high temperatures preceding the monsoon, the summer is forecasted to experience an increased number of heat wave days compared to previous years.
The agency employs multi-model ensemble forecasting systems based on multiple climate prediction centers to generate its forecasts. With climate change increasing variability in rainfall, experts caution on relying solely on overall rainfall figures for economic planning. The IMD plans to issue updated forecasts by the end of May, intending to provide more detailed insights into regional rainfall variations and their economic implications as the season approaches.
The IMD has predicted an above-normal monsoon, with possible rainfall reaching 105% of the average, benefiting an agriculture-dependent economy. Despite historical inaccuracies in forecasting, current climatic conditions favor this optimistic outlook. Nevertheless, significant geographic variability in rainfall distribution is expected. IMD’s continued updates will be vital for understanding regional impacts and informing economic planning as the season progresses.
Original Source: www.hindustantimes.com
