Japan and India Face Severe Earthquake Risks: Expert Insights

Japan warns of a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough, with an estimated 80% chance, while India faces significant earthquake risks in the Himalayas. Experts predict inevitable large-scale seismic events, highlighting a critical need for disaster preparedness due to rising population vulnerabilities.

Japan’s southwest Pacific coast is at significant risk for a major earthquake, particularly in the Nankai Trough area. A report from the Cabinet Office indicates an 80% probability of occurrence, which could lead to a catastrophic scenario with 1.23 million evacuees if it hits during winter nights. In 2023, following a magnitude-7.1 quake near the same trough, Japan issued a megaquake warning, highlighting the potential for destruction.

India is also exceptionally vulnerable to seismic activity, particularly the anticipated Great Himalayan Earthquake. Geophysicist Roger Bilham has emphasized that the Himalayas will inevitably experience a major quake of magnitude 8 or higher. He noted, “Two or more regions of the Himalayas must soon rupture in a great earthquake.” The tectonic plates are slowly shifting under Tibet, and when the friction yields, it could result in a devastating earthquake.

Cities such as Chandigarh, Dehradun, and Delhi face severe risks from a potential Himalayan quake. The 2020 study highlighted in Seismological Research Letters stated the Himalayan region is “poised” for significant earthquake activity. Researcher Steven G. Wesnousky warned that such an event could occur within our lifetimes. Indian seismologist Supriyo Mitra concurs that the Himalayan faults are primed for an earthquake exceeding 8 in magnitude, although the timing remains uncertain.

The increasing population exacerbates the danger; for instance, the population in Kachchh surged tenfold over the years, with fatalities from quakes rising sharply from 2,000 in 1819 to 30,000 in 2001. If a quake similar to the 1905 Kangra earthquake occurred today, casualties could exceed 200,000, especially in densely populated megacities in the Ganges plain.

Preparedness remains a critical concern as the unpredictability of earthquakes poses significant challenges. Studies indicate that the economic and human impact of such disasters is substantial, as evident from Japan’s experiences. Consequently, it is imperative for India to enhance its disaster preparedness strategies before a major quake strikes, whether it happens tomorrow or decades from now.

The article underscores the serious earthquake risks faced by both Japan and India. Japan’s Nankai Trough poses a substantial threat of a megaquake, with high probabilities of occurrence leading to mass evacuations. Similarly, India is at high risk for a Great Himalayan Earthquake, with experts predicting inevitable seismic activity. The significant increase in population heightens the potential impact of such disasters, emphasizing the urgent need for enhanced preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Original Source: m.economictimes.com