Japan Issues Warning of Possible Catastrophic Megaquake

The Japanese government issued a warning about future “megaquakes,” estimating potential economic losses of $1.8 trillion and nearly 300,000 fatalities. The report emphasizes Japan’s vulnerability due to its location on multiple tectonic plates within the circum-Pacific seismic belt. A recent earthquake in Myanmar heightened awareness of seismic risks, prompting a review of disaster prevention strategies in Japan.

The Japanese government has issued a warning regarding future “megaquakes,” predicting significant economic devastation and potentially 300,000 fatalities. This report, released Monday, outlines the severe risks Japan faces due to its positioning within the circum-Pacific seismic belt, commonly known as the “Ring of Fire,” where a high concentration of the world’s largest earthquakes occur.

Japan’s geography places its main islands on five active tectonic plates, which include the Amur, Okhotsk, Pacific, Philippine Sea, and Okinawa plates. This tectonic plate movement causes earthquakes, primarily occurring along their boundaries. The country previously endured the 9.0-magnitude Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, which was the largest recorded in Japan, causing widespread destruction and 19,729 documented deaths.

A new report from a Japanese earthquake task force forecasts that a potential Nankai Trough megaquake could claim up to 298,000 lives, with about 215,000 deaths resulting from tsunamis. The Nankai Trough, where three tectonic plates converge, has a history of causing earthquakes every 100 to 150 years. The last seismic activities linked to this trench occurred in the mid-1940s.

The recent estimation of potential casualties marks a 10 percent reduction from 2012 forecasts. In contrast, the projected economic impact has escalated from $1.4 trillion to $1.8 trillion. Authorities estimate a 70-80 percent likelihood of a megaquake occurring within the next 30 years, predicting extreme scenarios with a seismic intensity rating of 7, rendering buildings susceptible to collapse and resulting in tsunami waves exceeding 98 feet.

The urgency of this report follows a recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar that reportedly claimed many lives. The entire situation has reignited conversations regarding the manga “The Future I Saw,” published in 1999, which has drawn unexpected parallels to real-world events, including the 2011 earthquake. The manga prophesied a disaster around July 2025, leading its readers to speculate about potential future events.

Professor Nobuo Fukuwa from Nagoya University emphasized the necessity of improved countermeasures to safeguard the nation. The U.S. Geological Survey remarked on Japan’s extensive seismic monitoring capabilities, highlighting the unpredictability of major earthquakes. In response to the findings, Japan’s government plans to revise disaster prevention measures and prioritize evacuation strategies for high-risk flood zones.

Ryan Chan, who writes for Newsweek from Hong Kong, focuses on security issues in the Western Pacific. He can be contacted by email for further details about this report.

The warning from the Japanese government regarding potential megaquakes outlines significant risks associated with Japan’s seismic activity. Predictions of high fatalities and economic losses emphasize the urgent need for revised disaster preparedness. Continuous monitoring and preventative measures are essential to mitigate potential catastrophic impacts, particularly in light of historical patterns and the uncertainties inherent in seismic events. Dr. Fukuwa’s call for better government action and the ongoing relevance of prophetic narratives reflect societal concerns over Japan’s vulnerability to natural disasters.

Original Source: www.newsweek.com