Japan Issues New Megaquake Death Toll Projection Amid Ongoing Risks

The Japanese government estimates that a megaquake in the Nankai Trough could result in nearly 300,000 deaths and significant building damage. Compared to previous estimates, expectations have only slightly improved, falling short of 2014 disaster mitigation goals. Experts underscore the need to enhance quake-resistant structures and adapt projections to reflect changes in public evacuation awareness.

The Japanese government estimates that nearly 300,000 fatalities could occur from a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough. This updated projection, released on Monday, indicates that, in a worst-case scenario, 298,000 lives could be lost, and approximately 2.35 million buildings may be destroyed or set ablaze.

In comparison to the previous estimate from over ten years ago, the death toll projection is only 8% lower, and anticipated building damage shows a mere 2% decrease. However, the latest analysis incorporates updated geographical data, which expands the tsunami risk areas, making direct comparisons difficult.

Despite these updates, the current estimates do not align with the government’s 2014 disaster mitigation goals aimed at reducing fatalities by 80% and building destruction by approximately 50% within ten years. Many buildings in vulnerable areas remain inadequately earthquake-resistant.

Professor Emeritus Fukuwa Nobuo from Nagoya University emphasized the urgent need to enhance the quake-resistance of houses and buildings. He is a leading figure in the government working group responsible for compiling this projection and developing countermeasures.

Critics have raised concerns about the projection method, noting that significant changes in public awareness of evacuation needs over the past decade were not considered, primarily due to a lack of regular surveys. Professor Sekiya Naoya from the University of Tokyo argued these changes should have been integrated, highlighting the increased frequency of evacuation drills in at-risk communities since the 2011 disaster.

The government plans to support community-led initiatives through ongoing reviews of progress related to disaster preparedness, ensuring continuous improvement in mitigation efforts.

Japan’s revised estimation of the potential impacts of a megaquake in the Nankai Trough reveals a high risk of fatalities and extensive property damage. Although estimates show slight improvements over the past decade, they remain below government mitigation goals. Experts stress the importance of enhancing building resilience and incorporating public awareness into future projections to better prepare for potential disasters.

Original Source: www3.nhk.or.jp