Japan Warns of Up to 298,000 Deaths from Nankai Trough Mega Quake

The Japanese government’s task force predicts up to 298,000 fatalities from a potential mega quake in the Nankai Trough, with a 10% reduction from 2012 estimates. The report emphasizes the need for improving evacuation strategies and infrastructure, projecting economic losses up to 270 trillion yen and potential death tolls due to tsunami-related incidents. A new disaster prevention agency will be established by 2026 as part of revised disaster management strategies.

The Japanese government’s earthquake task force warned that a mega quake in the Nankai Trough could claim up to 298,000 lives. This figure, disclosed on March 31, reflects a reduction of approximately 10% from a 2012 estimate due to ongoing mitigation efforts. However, this still falls short of the government’s 2014 goal to reduce fatalities by about 80%, indicating a pressing need for enhanced evacuation strategies and infrastructure enhancements.

The task force estimates that the number of evacuees would surge to 12.3 million, up from 9.5 million in 2012, representing about 10% of Japan’s population. Furthermore, 764 municipalities within 31 of Japan’s 47 prefectures are expected to endure tremors of at least a lower 6 on the seismic intensity scale or face tsunami waves of 3 meters or higher.

Economic ramifications could reach 270 trillion yen (approximately S$2.43 trillion), an increase from the prior estimate of 214 trillion yen. Projections for the total number of buildings completely destroyed were slightly adjusted to 2.35 million, attributed to improvements in residential seismic retrofitting.

Notably, of the anticipated 298,000 fatalities, 215,000 are expected to result from tsunami-related incidents. This figure is based on the assumption that only 20% of individuals would evacuate promptly. However, boosting the evacuation rate to 70% could lower the tsunami death toll to 94,000, highlighting the critical importance of efficient evacuation protocols.

Based on updated topographical data, the area projected to face flooding of at least 30cm has grown by 30%. Despite the implementation of seawalls and evacuation facilities, the overall death toll is not predicted to decrease significantly. The most severe case analyzed involves a magnitude 9-class earthquake occurring during winter, with major destruction focused in the Tokai region.

According to this scenario, Shizuoka would see the highest fatalities at 101,000, followed by Miyazaki at 33,000 and Mie at 29,000. The government also anticipates an additional 26,000 to 52,000 “disaster-related deaths,” linked to deteriorating health conditions in evacuation shelters.

Plans to revise disaster prevention strategies include prioritizing areas at increased flood risk and formulating a new national resilience plan for 2026 to 2030 aimed at expediting infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, a new disaster prevention agency is projected for establishment in fiscal 2026.

The revised estimates for potential fatalities from a Nankai Trough mega quake highlight significant risks to Japan, prompting a reconsideration of disaster prevention strategies. The need for enhanced evacuation protocols and improved infrastructure is critical as the projected death toll remains alarmingly high. Meanwhile, the government aims to establish a new resilience agency to better prepare for future disasters.

Original Source: www.straitstimes.com