Japan Lowers Possible Death Toll from Future Nankai Trough Megaquake

Japan’s government panel estimates a death toll of up to 298,000 from a projected megaquake in the Nankai Trough, with an 80% chance of occurrence in 30 years. Preventive measures are seen as essential for reducing fatalities, especially related to tsunamis that could reach Tokyo and other prefectures. The forecast emphasizes improving evacuee conditions and outlines severe implications for disaster management.

A Japanese government panel has revised the estimated death toll from a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough to 298,000, slightly down from the previous estimate of 320,000 made over a decade ago. This revision comes amidst predictions of an 80 percent likelihood for a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring within the next 30 years along the Pacific Coast.

Professor Emeritus Fukuwa Nobuo of Nagoya University presented the panel’s findings to Disaster Management Minister Sakai Manabu, who emphasized the importance of preventive measures to mitigate damage. Sakai believes that with appropriate actions, the impact of such disasters can be significantly reduced.

The report indicates that the maximum anticipated seismic magnitude may reach nine, with a seismic intensity of lower 6 expected in 24 prefectures and intensity 7 in 10 other prefectures across Japan. The panel estimates that tsunamis reaching heights of at least 10 meters could hit Tokyo and 12 other prefectures, while some areas in Kochi and Shizuoka may experience tsunamis exceeding 30 meters.

In the worst-case scenario, the projected death toll of 298,000 is based on the quake striking during the winter at night, primarily due to tsunami-related fatalities. This estimate reflects an 8 percent reduction from earlier calculations, despite ongoing efforts such as building seawalls and evacuation towers to enhance public safety.

Furthermore, the panel forecasts that up to 52,000 individuals may die from disaster-related causes, underscoring a crucial need to improve living conditions for evacuees. Fukuwa noted the widespread concern regarding the potential dangers Japan faces from such catastrophic events and stressed the importance of implementing preventative measures effectively.

In summary, Japan’s governmental panel has lowered the potential death toll from a megaquake in the Nankai Trough to 298,000 while highlighting an 80 percent chance of occurrence within the next three decades. Emphasis on preventive measures is critical to mitigate the loss of life and improve evacuation procedures. Enhanced living conditions for evacuees remain a crucial area for development to reduce disaster-related casualties significantly.

Original Source: www3.nhk.or.jp