Japan Estimates Megaquake Risks: $1.8 Trillion Damage and 300,000 Lives at Stake
Japan estimates that a potential megaquake could result in US$1.81 trillion in damages and 300,000 deaths, significantly impacting its economy. Updated figures reflect inflation and geological observations, with an 80% chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake along the Nankai Trough, which could lead to mass evacuations and fatalities. Following past seismic events, Japan stressed the importance of preparedness for future quakes.
Japan’s economy could face potential losses of up to US$1.81 trillion due to a feared megaquake off the Pacific coast, according to a recent government report. This earthquake, coupled with possible tsunamis, could lead to the destruction of numerous buildings and result in approximately 300,000 fatalities. The projected economic damage of 270.3 trillion yen represents nearly half of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The new estimate has risen significantly from the previous figure of 214.2 trillion yen, reflecting inflation and updated geological data that indicate increased expected flood zones. Approximately 80 percent probability is assigned to a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring in Japan’s vulnerable Nankai Trough region, which significantly raises concerns for national security and safety.
In a worst-case scenario involving a magnitude 9 earthquake, Japan could see over 1.23 million people evacuated, representing about 10 percent of the nation’s population. Research indicates that nearly 298,000 people might die from the combined effects of tsunamis and building collapses, especially if the disaster strikes during winter nights.
The Nankai Trough stretches 900 kilometers off Japan’s southwest coast, where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate, causing significant tectonic stress. Megaquakes in this region are estimated to occur approximately every 100 to 150 years. Following a magnitude-7.1 quake near this area last year, Japan issued its inaugural megaquake advisory, highlighting an increased likelihood of a higher magnitude quake based on current seismic activity.
The historical context includes the devastating 2011 earthquake, which had a magnitude of 9, leading to over 15,000 deaths and triggering a catastrophic tsunami, as well as multiple reactor meltdowns at a northeast Japanese nuclear facility.
Japan faces severe risks from a potential megaquake, with possible damages reaching US$1.81 trillion and the loss of 300,000 lives. The updated assessments underscore the urgent need for disaster preparedness given the region’s high seismic activity. The Nankai Trough presents significant long-term challenges, necessitating ongoing vigilance, infrastructure resilience, and public awareness as the nation navigates these threats.
Original Source: www.channelnewsasia.com
