Low Expectations for Russian-Ukrainian Talks in Saudi Arabia
Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine will meet with US officials in Saudi Arabia, but progress is expected to be minimal. US envoy Steve Witkoff remains optimistic, yet analysts believe any results will focus on cease-fire technicalities rather than actual peace agreements. Recent escalations in conflict and civilian casualties add urgency to the discussions.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are set to engage in discussions with a US delegation in Saudi Arabia, though expectations for significant progress are low. US officials, notably US envoy Steve Witkoff, have expressed optimism, stating that there might be “real progress” made. However, analysts from both Kyiv and Moscow maintain a cautious outlook, suggesting that the most likely outcome could be merely a cease-fire pause, dragging the discussions over an extended timeframe.
Serhiy Taran, a political analyst, noted that any results might encompass minimal progress, such as technical details surrounding the cease-fire, which would subsequently be conveyed to all involved parties. Taran emphasized that these talks do not signify the prospect of peace but are strictly about technical details.
In Russia, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tempered expectations, cautioning that “serious, thorough work is ahead” and stating that they are merely at the beginning of the negotiation journey. The delegations from Russia and Ukraine are not expected to meet directly; instead, they will engage in separate discussions with the US team, a method referred to as “shuttle diplomacy.”
The meeting, beginning on March 23, represents a historic event as negotiators from both sides gather in the same location. This could accelerate the negotiation pace, contrasting with past sessions that featured lengthy delays. Although the setup resembles previous protracted cease-fire discussions, it might provide clearer communication on negotiation content to avoid the confusion of varying claims about agreements reached.
US President Donald Trump’s previous optimism regarding a rapid agreement has faced multiple setbacks, despite initial plans for a general cease-fire. Following a conversation with Putin, the Kremlin narrowed the agreements to energy infrastructure only, complicating earlier understandings. Ukraine seeks to clarify the targeted areas of attacks in upcoming discussions.
Additionally, there are ongoing talks concerning a bilateral deal on Ukraine’s rare Earth minerals, but the signing remains uncertain. Witkoff indicated potential advancements in negotiations, specifically targeting a cease-fire in the Black Sea, which should ideally lead to an overall cessation of hostilities.
Amid these diplomatic efforts, Russian military actions have intensified, resulting in civilian casualties, including young children in Ukraine. In response, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has called for new strategies to exert pressure on Moscow to end the ongoing violence and conflict.
The impending talks in Saudi Arabia between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators alongside US officials are anticipated to yield limited outcomes, primarily technical discussions regarding a cease-fire rather than a comprehensive peace strategy. While US officials express optimism, analysts from both nations suggest that significant breakthroughs are unlikely, with rising hostilities complicating the diplomatic landscape. The current context underscores the urgent need for new measures against escalating violence to foster peace efforts.
Original Source: www.rferl.org
