Turkey’s Stance Amid Syrian Opposition Advances Against Assad
Turkey is monitoring the advances of Syrian opposition forces against Assad and denying involvement in their offensive, despite suggestions of tacit support. The Turkish government aims to counter Kurdish influence and manage refugee flows while navigating complex relationships with Russia and Iran. Analysts believe the situation poses significant risks, including potential instability and increased pressure on Turkish borders.
As opposition forces in Syria gain momentum against President Bashar Assad, Turkey remains vigilant regarding potential repercussions. Sharing a long border with Syria, Turkey has been a staunch supporter of opposition factions since the civil war erupted in 2011, leading to a significant influx of Syrian refugees, currently totaling around 3 million. Despite claims of non-involvement in a recent offensive led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), many analysts suggest that Turkey’s tacit approval was necessary for the operation’s execution, as it aligns with Turkey’s objectives, particularly in countering Kurdish groups like the PKK.
President Erdogan criticized Assad’s lack of responsiveness to a proposed meeting aimed at shaping Syria’s future, indicating frustration with the ongoing turmoil in the region. Turkey has emphasized its commitment to preserving Syria’s territorial integrity, particularly opposing the formation of a Kurdish autonomous region along its border. Since 2016, Turkey has conducted military operations in northern Syria, aiming to push back both the Islamic State and Kurdish forces, while also pursuing efforts to facilitate dialogue between Syria’s government and the opposition.
While Turkish officials deny any support for the anti-Assad offensive, they acknowledge the complexities surrounding the situation. Spokesman Omer Celik labeled allegations of Turkey’s involvement as false, asserting their desire for de-escalation in Syria. Conversely, experts note that the recent offensive likely could not have occurred without Turkey’s underlying endorsement, highlighting its influence over the HTS, despite Ankara classifying the organization as a terrorist entity.
The risks for Turkey include strained relations with Syria’s allies, Iran, and Russia, especially as instability could lead to increased refugee flows. With Turkey seeking to balance cooperation with both Russia and NATO, experts remain skeptical of Russia relinquishing support for Assad amid the turmoil. The offensive may provide Turkey an opportunity to achieve strategic ends, pressuring Assad toward negotiations, while pushing Kurdish forces further from Turkey’s border, especially as the YPG’s collaboration with U.S. forces complicates the narrative.
There are hopes that opposition successes in Aleppo might encourage Syrian refugees to return to their homeland. Conversely, concerns remain regarding the autonomy of the HTS as it expands its influence, posing questions about Turkey’s control over the jihadist group and the potential implications for regional stability. As Gonul Tol stated, “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization to be running a neighboring country?”
Turkey is closely monitoring the situation as Syrian opposition forces gain ground against Assad, with implications for regional stability and refugee flows. Despite claims of non-involvement in the offensive, analysts suggest Turkey’s indirect support aligns with its strategic goals of curbing Kurdish influence. As the conflict evolves, Turkey faces risks associated with external relations and the growing power of opposition forces like HTS.
Original Source: apnews.com
